In a significant geopolitical shift, Somalia is deliberating on granting landlocked Ethiopia access to a port along the Indian Ocean. This move comes as both nations work to mend diplomatic tensions following Ethiopia’s controversial agreement with Somaliland—a self-declared independent region of Somalia—in early 2024. A potential framework agreement is expected to be reached by June 2025, which could redefine trade, security, and diplomatic relations in the Horn of Africa. This decision has far-reaching implications, not only for Somalia and Ethiopia but also for the broader geopolitical landscape, involving Egypt, Eritrea, and other key regional players.
Ethiopia’s Maritime Ambitions
Ethiopia, the third-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, has been landlocked since 1993 when Eritrea gained independence after a three-decade-long war. The loss of direct sea access forced Ethiopia to rely heavily on ports in Djibouti, which handles approximately 90% of its international trade. This dependency has long been seen as a strategic vulnerability for Ethiopia, prompting it to explore alternative routes to the sea.
The Ethiopian government has sought multiple avenues to secure maritime access, leading to its controversial agreement with Somaliland in January 2024. Under the deal, Ethiopia was granted access to 20 kilometers of coastline on the Gulf of Aden in exchange for possible recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty. This move triggered a diplomatic crisis, as Somalia, which claims sovereignty over Somaliland, strongly opposed the agreement and sought international support to invalidate it.
The Turkey-Brokered Diplomatic Reset
Amid rising tensions, Turkey intervened as a mediator to prevent a further deterioration of relations between Ethiopia and Somalia. In December 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan facilitated negotiations that culminated in a pledge by both nations to resolve their dispute through diplomatic channels. As a result, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud agreed to negotiate a structured arrangement that would allow Ethiopia controlled access to a Somali port without infringing on Somalia’s territorial sovereignty.
Following the Turkish-brokered talks, a high-level meeting in Mogadishu in February 2025 confirmed that both nations are committed to finalizing a framework agreement by June 2025. This agreement will determine the type of port to be allocated, its location, and the financial obligations Ethiopia must fulfill for its use.
Military and Security Cooperation
Beyond economic cooperation, the rapprochement between Ethiopia and Somalia has extended to military collaboration. In a recent meeting between Somali National Army (SNA) General Odowaa Yusuf Rage and Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, both countries agreed to renew security ties. The new military pact aims to enhance security cooperation, combat terrorism, and stabilize border regions.
This development follows Somalia’s earlier decision to remove Ethiopian troops from the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) after Ethiopia’s controversial dealings with Somaliland. However, as part of their renewed diplomatic engagement, Ethiopia’s re-inclusion in AUSSOM has now been greenlit. Ethiopian troops will participate in counterterrorism operations in key Somali regions, including Gedo, Hiiraan, Bay, and Bakool.
Impact on Ethiopia-Somaliland Relations
The renewed partnership between Somalia and Ethiopia raises serious questions about the viability of Ethiopia’s earlier agreement with Somaliland. The initial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in January 2024 was seen as a major step toward Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland’s independence in exchange for port access. However, Ethiopia’s shift towards a formal agreement with Somalia undermines its previous commitments to Somaliland. If Ethiopia proceeds with gaining access to a Somali port under Somalia’s sovereignty, it may have to reconsider or even abandon its MoU with Somaliland to avoid further straining relations with Mogadishu. This could lead to diplomatic fallout between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which had viewed the MoU as a major step towards international recognition. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s recalibrated approach may reignite internal debates within Somaliland regarding the viability of independence without firm international backing.
Egypt and Eritrea’s Opposition
While the Ethiopia-Somalia reconciliation has been welcomed in some quarters, it has raised serious concerns for Egypt and Eritrea. Both nations have traditionally opposed Ethiopia’s maritime expansion ambitions.
- Egypt’s Position: Egypt has historically viewed Ethiopian access to the Red Sea as a strategic threat, particularly in light of tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo has actively sought to counter Ethiopia’s geopolitical influence by strengthening alliances with Eritrea and Somalia. Egypt has also provided military training to Somali forces and has warned against any Ethiopian naval presence along the Red Sea coastline.
- Eritrea’s Concerns: Eritrea has long been wary of Ethiopia’s regional ambitions, particularly after the Tigray conflict in which Asmara played a key role. President Isaias Afwerki has been vocal about his opposition to Ethiopia gaining an independent maritime presence, as this could undermine Eritrea’s strategic control over key Red Sea access points.
In recent months, both Egypt and Eritrea have explored diplomatic and military options to counterbalance Ethiopia’s growing influence. In October 2024, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia convened in Asmara to discuss joint strategies to prevent Ethiopian access to the Red Sea. However, Somalia’s subsequent pivot toward Ethiopia has strained this alliance. Eritrea is now reassessing its diplomatic ties with Somalia, and Egypt has hinted at potential economic sanctions or military countermeasures in response to Somalia’s shift in allegiance.
Economic and Strategic Implications for Somalia
For Somalia, granting Ethiopia port access presents both opportunities and risks.
Potential Benefits:
- If structured correctly, a port deal with Ethiopia could bring significant investment into Somalia’s infrastructure. Ethiopia, with its rapidly growing economy, could contribute to port development, road networks, and logistics hubs, creating jobs and boosting trade.
- A formalized trade partnership could help stabilize relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, reducing the likelihood of future territorial disputes or security confrontations.
- By brokering Ethiopia’s access to the sea, Somalia positions itself as a key player in Horn of Africa geopolitics, increasing its leverage in regional affairs.
Risks and Challenges:
- The decision to work with Ethiopia has already sparked opposition from some Somali politicians and civil society groups who see it as compromising national sovereignty.
- Aligning with Ethiopia risks alienating key security allies such as Egypt and Eritrea, potentially escalating regional tensions.
- If Ethiopia gains unrestricted port access under unfavorable terms for Somalia, it could lead to long-term economic dependencies that may limit Somalia’s sovereign control over its coastal assets.
The negotiations between Somalia and Ethiopia over port access represent a critical moment in Horn of Africa diplomacy. While a successful agreement could usher in economic benefits and regional stability, the geopolitical stakes remain high. Somalia must carefully navigate its commitments to Ethiopia while managing the expectations of its traditional allies, particularly Egypt and Eritrea.
The coming months will be crucial in determining the direction of this evolving partnership. If handled strategically, Somalia could emerge as a central economic and diplomatic force in the region. However, missteps could deepen existing divisions and trigger new conflicts, further destabilizing an already volatile region.
As Somalia and Ethiopia work toward finalizing their agreement by June 2025, the Horn of Africa will remain a focal point of geopolitical maneuvering, with global and regional powers closely monitoring every development.
