Recent outbreaks of fighting in Tigray put Ethiopia and Eritrea on the brink of war.
Reports show that the Debretsion faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front has seized control of Adigrat city, with many civilian deaths reported in Mekelle and Adigudom.
"Many casualties in Adigudom and parts of Mekelle. The rampage is part of a harebrained plan to install an illegal faction of TPLF into the position of power," said Getachew Reda, President of the Tigray Region Interim Administration.
The unrest follows Getachew’s decision to suspend three military generals who back the Debretsion faction. This split has led to Tigrayan Defense Forces units taking control of eastern Tigray from the legitimate administration.
Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, Vice President of the Tigray Interim Administration, warns that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea “seems inevitable” with preparations reaching their “final stages” and Tigray likely becoming the main battleground.
"At any moment, war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out," Tsadkan wrote.
Getachew Reda has also claimed that “external forces” are involved in the actions of the Debretsion faction.
Reda’s statement likely refers to Eritrean forces, which have a history of external involvement in Tigray.
Port Politics Adds Fuel to Regional Tensions
The brewing conflict runs deeper than Tigray’s internal politics.
Ethiopia, landlocked since 1993, seeks Red Sea access while Eritrea guards its ports fiercely.
"Ethiopia's leadership has shifted from seeking 'access' to the Red Sea toward advocating for 'ownership'," researcher Bahre Nhegasi told The Daily Euro Times. "Any unilateral move by Ethiopia could spark military tensions, disrupting regional stability."
Relations Rock the Boat: Addis Ababa & Mogadishu
Ethiopia made headway in talks with Somalia for port access last week.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, with port negotiations high on the agenda.
Somali Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ali Mohammed Omar, told local media that talks are ongoing, with the aim of reaching a framework agreement by June.
"That framework will determine which type of port to offer, the exact area in the Indian Ocean, and the overall cost of it," the minister stated.
Currently, Ethiopia uses Djibouti’s ports through roads and the 752-kilometre Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway. As one of the largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, Ethiopia pushes to build its own port on the Indian Ocean.
Meanwhile, Eritrea bolsters its position through strategic alliances. Eritrea is aligning with Saudi Arabia to strengthen its hold over Assab port, bolstering its sovereignty against Ethiopian pressures.
Competing interests, however, create a tinderbox that could light up at any moment.
Regional Insecurity: Al-Shabaab Resurgence
As Ethiopia and Eritrea eye each other warily, the situation in neighbouring Somalia complicates the calculation. Just days ago, Ethiopia’s air force conducted strikes against al-Shabaab militants in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle Region.
The strikes came after Ethiopia and Somalia signed a security pact last month. "No air strikes can take place in Somalia without the government's knowledge," Somali Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur confirmed, noting Somali forces joined the operation.
A Bust-Up Cleared Up, For Now
The minister praised the growing security cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia, referring to the Ankara Declaration as a framework for their joint efforts against al-Shabaab.
Ethiopia’s involvement follows a thaw in relations with Somalia, following a previous bid to recognise Somaliland independence in exchange for maritime access at Berbera, yet the Memorandum faced backlash by Mogadishu.
Therefore, military leaders from both countries met in February and agreed to strengthen joint operations.
Leaders aim to support Somalia’s security forces in taking full control of the country’s territory whilst negotiations, on maritime access, keep Addis’ interests in Somaliland on hold for now.
Eritrean Youth Movement Pushes for Change
Inside Eritrea, the youth-led “Blue Revolution” has emerged as a challenge to President Isaias Afwerki’s rule. The movement demands an end to forced conscription and seeks democratic reforms.
"For lasting peace in the Horn of Africa, both Ethiopia and Eritrea must address the root causes of instability, starting with Eritrea's internal transformation," explained Bahre Nhegasi.
“Eritrea has long been under the repressive rule of the PFDJ, with widespread forced conscription, economic stagnation, and political repression.” The youth-led movement, he said, seeks to dismantle the authoritarian regime and establish a government that respects human rights.
The timing of this movement adds another layer to the already complex situation. Some worry Eritrea might use external conflicts to crush internal dissent.
Potential Overspill: Corridor of Instability
A conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea wouldn’t stay contained, warns Foreign Policy. It would “destroy what is left of Sudan, destabilise Chad, and create a highway of instability connecting the Sahel to the Red Sea.”
The Horn of Africa already reels from Sudan's civil war. The risks are heightened today as "diplomatic norms are being subordinated to violent action that creates new facts on the ground."
Conflict between the Somali government and militants continues. From Yemen – less than 180 miles from the Eritrean coast – the Houthis warn of further attacks into the Red Sea.
Real Solutions: Red Sea Basin Demands Action
Nhegasi believes the way forward must include full implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, diplomatic resolution of Ethiopia’s Red Sea needs, support for democratic change in Eritrea, and regional economic integration.
"The time for warlords and dictators is over. The time for new, pragmatic leadership is now," Nhegasi asserts. "These power-hungry dictators must face intense international scrutiny and be stopped before they drag the region into yet another cycle of destruction."
Without swift international action, an Eritrean-Ethiopian war in Tigray would establish a continuous battlefield spanning crossing both countries, potentially connecting with existing conflicts to create a massive zone of instability from Sudan through Somalia to Yemen.
